Lessons for Flattening the Climate Curve

COVID-19’s tragic death toll, and the resources spent to respond and recover from the virus, have some climate policy activists concerned that our current crisis has reduced the will and ability to tackle climate change. Call me a contrarian. I think there are several parallels between our immediate COVID-19 crisis and the longerterm challenge of climate change that may turn the first into a dress rehearsal for the second. Despite claims, neither crisis is a Black Swan, a unique disaster that could not have been anticipated but seems obvious in retrospect. Pandemics such as coronavirus have come and gone throughout history. We should have been prepared for what we are going through. Lack of preparation turned an epidemic into a pandemic. Climate change has been on the radar screen for at least four decades, so it isn’t a Black Swan either. Responding to both COVID-19 and climate is a matter of “flattening the curve.” The climate change curve is much more prolonged, and its threat is much more existential. The very length and seemingly modest slope of the climate threat curve makes it more difficult to respond to in time. Both coronavirus and climate change are attacking fundamental weaknesses of our economic and social system. The damage done to our complex, fragile supply chains emphasizes the need to increase economic resilience as a buffer against inevitable, significant disruptions. At the same time, the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on disadvantaged communities has been breathtaking, dramatically magnifying the environmental injustices of everyday life. Climate change is causing the same types of damage to our socio-economy. Which brings us to the broader topic of social cohesion, a degree of which will be necessary to a successful response to both COVID-19 and climate change. Presently, it is unclear whether the virus is bringing us together or further reinforcing our tribalistic tendencies. If the latter is the case, addressing climate change will become even more difficult. Finally, an optimal response to both crises will require that science and data serve as the North Star that guides public policy. We need to be able to accurately track the climate change curve, in terms of both temperatures and health and ecological impacts, and be able to predict and quantify the impact of various mitigation and adaptation measures. Speaking of policy, I am reminded of that great Churchillian bon mot, “Never waste a good crisis.” We are all in the midst of learning a new way of living and doing business, emphasizing greater use of technology and virtualization. The current moment will pass, eventually, but we are not likely to return to the status quo ante. Here are some policy thoughts relevant to creating a new and better normal: Most fundamentally, we need to become more economically and socially resilient. Governments need to invest in delivering more services digitally, where possible. Schools at all levels must be able to offer more eLearning services as a baseline, with the ability to pivot to a virtual norm when circumstances dictate. This will require a serious effort to truly close the digital divide across society. You can’t function in today’s economy without a smartphone and a laptop. Similarly, perhaps incented by public policies, businesses need to invest in operating remotely, making today’s necessity a virtue. Part of that will include increasing the variety of jobs that can be done virtually, reducing perhaps the most striking digital divide of the COVID-19 crisis. Enabling these changes in how we conduct our lives and business affairs will require massive public investments in 5G network technologies and the “digitalization” of virtually everything. Real-time advances being driven by the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence applications will lend a robust tailwind to these other advancements. Here too, government policy can play a big role in advancing progress. A major part of investing in a more resilient society will need to include modernizing the electricity grid. A modern, more resilient grid — operating more like the Internet, featuring two-way flows of both information and electrons — is a precondition for the grid to run on 100 percent renewable energy. And a clean-powered grid is essential to meeting the climate challenge. The modernization imperative applies to our local water infrastructure as well. Investing in the acceleration of the renewable energy future is key to “Building Back Better.” The massive stimulus package following the 2008 Great Recession helped jumpstart a major increase in renewables penetration. The anticipated infrastructure package should double-down on that precedent. Otherwise we will simply be creating a new generation of soon-to-be (expensively) stranded assets. And those assets will not put us in any better position to respond to the next pandemic or ride out the ongoing curve of climate change.

Stephen Harper is Director, Environmental and Energy policy, Intel Corporation.